How to calculate win rate
Win rate = Winning trades ÷ Total trades × 100
Break-even win rate = Average loss ÷ (Average win + Average loss) × 100
The 95% range uses the Wilson score interval, which behaves well even for small samples.
Worked example
- 60 winners from 100 trades → win rate = 60 ÷ 100 = 60%.
- Average win $100, average loss $50 → break-even = 50 ÷ 150 = 33.3%.
- Expectancy = 0.6 × 100 − 0.4 × 50 = +$40 per trade.
How to interpret win rate
Win rate on its own is one of the most misleading statistics in trading. A 35% win rate is excellent with 3:1 winners and a 70% win rate can lose money with small wins and large losses. Compare it with the break-even rate from your payoff — or use the expectancy calculator, which combines both into one number.
Limitations and common mistakes
- Small samples are noisy: 6 wins from 10 trades is consistent with a true win rate anywhere from roughly 31% to 83%.
- Decide in advance whether break-even trades count as wins, losses or neither — and stay consistent.
- Chasing a higher win rate by cutting winners early usually lowers expectancy.